The Lab Leak Theory

Were the conspiracy theorists right all along?

According to Google Maps, it would take about 45 minutes to cycle from the Wuhan Institute of Virology to the Huanan Seafood Market roughly nine miles away. These days, both locations are compelling candidates for the origins of COVID-19, and suspects in the deaths of seven million people worldwide. However, as recently as May 2021, any lab leak assertion could have seen me banned from Facebook, Twitter, and much of polite society. So, in a world where COVID remains a partisan issue, were the conspiracy theorists right all along about the origins of COVID 19?

I’m 72% sure we still don’t know. Despite the FBI recently saying COVID “most likely” originated in a “Chinese government-controlled lab”, there’s still a huge number of smart people who disagree. I personally believe that gain-of-function research and lax security is a believable narrative, but that a wet market zoonotic transmission sounds pretty damn compelling too. Of course, another theory is that the ambiguity has been sent to divide us, but maybe let’s leave that particular tin-foil-hattery for another day.

I’m 85% sure I understand why some people are pissed. Imagine if mainstream media and social media accused you of being racist, bigoted, and stupid but then couldn’t understand why you have the temerity to be upset when it emerges you might have been right all along. Personally, I’m pretty sure most people aren’t all that attached to the idea of the lab leak theory. I think what they’re attached to is the idea of being able to say what they think – even if it’s wrong – as opposed to being demonised and disregarded for the modern-day sin of possesing an open mind.  

I’m 95% sure the lab leak theory should not have been de-facto censored. I’m not quite a free speech absolutist but I do fundamentally believe that the best way to defeat a bad idea is with a better idea. Of course, it’s not the easiest way to ensure agreement – as numerous dictators over the years will happily attest – but claiming an idea is wrong because you said so belongs to the world of religion, and that’s why America was founded on The Enlightenment, and the separation of church and state.

I’m 56% sure conspiracy theories serve a purpose. Can it be a coincidence that a lot of conspiracy theories appear at times of great distress? Whether it’s Dallas in 1963, New York in 2001, or Wuhan in 2020, conspiracy theories soothe our brains with concrete explanations, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a feature not a bug. Now, conspiracy theories aren’t harmless, and of course most aren’t at all true, but they do serve a psychological purpose, as well as a counterweight to an emperor without any clothes.

I’m 68% sure the public can handle more uncertainty. If most of us can accept a 90% chance of sun and a 10% chance of rain, would the sky have fallen in if the official line from early 2020 was a 90% chance COVID came from a bat and a 10% chance it came from a lab? Personally, I can’t help wondering if a little less certainty from our leaders would generate more faith in democracy: But that would mean treating us like adults, and that starts to take it’s toll, because adults ask difficult questions, and children are easier to control.

Adding that up with more art than science, I’m 30% sure COVID came from a lab, 70% sure it came from elsewhere, and as certain as I can be it should be open to debate. I may be wrong – I often am – but as always, you’re more than welcome to disagree in the comments below.